Oil markets navigate geopolitical uncertainty and economic indicators: OPEC report and US CPI data awaited – The Financial Express

By Bhavik Patel 

The geopolitical risk premium returned to oil markets this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer and bombed Rafah. However upside is still capped due to weak demand and bearish calls from US Energy Information Administration, saying that US crude output is unlikely to surpass the current level of 13.3 million b/d until early 2025. 

Last week Brent crude breached the $80 per barrel mark, while WTI climbed above $75, a notable movement for the first time in February. The market was influenced by various factors, including escalating Middle East tensions, unexpected trends in U.S. fuel stocks, and developments in Russian oil exports. 

Earlier this month, Standard Chartered warned that global oil supply may be much tighter than previously believed, and the market could swing into a deficit as soon as this month, to the tune of 1.6 million bpd.

However the upside momentum is now losing steam as energy companies in the US have increased their oil and natural gas rigs to the highest since December. Crude oil trading volumes remained thin due to holidays in some parts of Asia. 

If inflation worries delay Fed interest rate cuts, that could reduce oil demand by slowing economic growth. Focus was now squarely on U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation data due later on Tuesday. 

A monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due later on Tuesday, and is expected to provide more cues on the cartel’s expectations for demand. After the OPEC report, a monthly report from the International Energy Agency is also due on Thursday.

On charts, trend still is positive in MCX with momentum oscillator healthy at 57. The recent swing high of 6530 is the next resistance level while support emerges at 6090-6100. We believe traders will await for US CPI data due today before taking any fresh positions and any dips near 6200 is buying opportunity with stoploss of 6100 and upside target of 6400.

(Bhavik Patel is a commodity and currency analyst at Tradebull Securities. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)

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